Lifecourse Microsimulation for Economic Evaluation

Core research team:  Ieva Skarda, Miqdad Asaria, Richard Cookson (PI)

Work in progress project materials:

LifeSim Executive Summary  (Nov 2019)

LifeSim Talk  (Nov 2019)

LifeSim Working Paper  (Nov 2019)

LifeSim Appendix   (Nov 2019)

Abstract

We show how lifecourse microsimulation can be used to improve economic evaluation. We
develop a birth cohort microsimulation model and use it to evaluate a training programme
for parents of children at risk of conduct disorder. Allowing for individual-level clustering,
compounding and interaction of developmental, educational, financial, social and health
outcomes over the lifecourse provides more accurate estimates of long-term benefits and
public costs. It also facilitates identification of new policy targeting options by pinpointing
which subgroups benefit most, and distributional analysis of impacts on lifetime inequalities
of opportunity and outcome

Keywords: : Simulation modelling, Cost Benefit, Health, Human capital, Skill, Inequality, QALY,
Quality of life, Well being

Funding source

This is independent research by the University of York funded by the Wellcome Trust (Grant No. 205427/Z/16/Z) and the UK Prevention Research Partnership as part of the ActEarly Consortium. Early development work on this project from 2017 to 2018 was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (SRF-2013-06-015).

The views expressed in these project materials are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the Wellcome Trust, the UK Prevention Research Partnership, the NHS, the National Institute for Health Research or the Department of Health.

Acknowledgements

We would like to thank the members of our advisory group: Annalisa Belloni, Sarah Cattan, Leon Feinstein, Paul Frijters, Peter Goldblatt, Heather Joshi, Catherine Law, Lara McClure, Mark Petticrew and Christine Power.

For useful conversations and comments we also are grateful to Shehzad Ali, Karen Bloor, Laura Bojke, Eva Maria Bonin, Jonathan Bradshaw, Tracey Bywater, Simon Capewell, Maria Guzman Castillo, Bette Chambers, Brendan Collins, Gabriella Conti, Tim Doran, Susan Griffin, Nils Gutacker, Andrew Jones, Noemi Kreif, Christodoulos Kypridemos, Richard Mattock, Cheti Nicoletti, Martin O’Flaherty, Kate Pickett, Gerry Richardson, Jemimah Ride, Matthew Robson, Tracey Sach, Tushar Srivastava, David Taylor-Robinson, Valentina Tonei, Aki Tsuchiya, Simon Walker and Margaret Whitehead.

The errors and opinions expressed in these project materials are our own.