Lifecourse Modelling for Childhood Policy Analysis

Core research team:  Ieva Skarda, Miqdad Asaria, Richard Cookson (PI)

Work in progress project materials:

Related work by Paul Frijters and colleagues at the LSE:


The standard approach to analysing the long-term impacts of childhood policies involves separate modelling of different outcome domains for the treatment group only. We introduce a more informative and flexible approach which jointly models the dynamic co-evolution of diverse developmental, economic, social and health outcomes from birth to death for each child in the general population. This allows economic evaluation of diverse programmes using a common modelling platform. It also facilitates identification of new policy targeting options by pinpointing
which kinds of children benefit most, and distributional analysis impacts on lifetime inequalities. We illustrate by developing a birth cohort microsimulation model and using it to evaluate a training programme for parents of children at risk of conduct disorder.

Keywords: : Simulation modelling, Cost Benefit, Health, Human capital, Skill, Inequality, QALY,
Quality of life, Well being

Funding source

This is independent research by the University of York funded by the Wellcome Trust (Grant No. 205427/Z/16/Z) and the UK Prevention Research Partnership as part of the ActEarly Consortium. Early development work on this project from 2017 to 2018 was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (SRF-2013-06-015).

The views expressed in these project materials are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the Wellcome Trust, the UK Prevention Research Partnership, the NHS, the National Institute for Health Research or the Department of Health.


We would like to thank the members of our advisory group: Annalisa Belloni, Sarah Cattan, Leon Feinstein, Paul Frijters, Peter Goldblatt, Heather Joshi, Catherine Law, Lara McClure, Mark Petticrew and Christine Power.

For useful conversations and comments we also are grateful to Shehzad Ali, Mark Ashworth, Karen Bloor, Laura Bojke, Eva Maria Bonin, Jonathan Bradshaw, Penny Breeze, Alan Brennan, Eric Brunner, Tracey Bywater, Simon Capewell, Maria Guzman Castillo, Bette Chambers, Brendan Collins, Gabriella Conti, Peter Diggle, Tim Doran, Susan Griffin, Nils Gutacker, Bruce Hollingsworth, Andrew Jones, Noemi Kreif, Christodoulos Kypridemos, Richard Mattock, Cheti Nicoletti, Martin O’Flaherty, Kate Pickett, George Ploubidis, Gerry Richardson, Jemimah Ride, Matthew Robson, Tracey Sach, Filipa Sampaio, Trevor Sheldon, Tushar Srivastava, Mark Strong, David Taylor-Robinson, Valentina Tonei, Aki Tsuchiya, Simon Walker, Margaret Whitehead and Mark Mon Williams.

The errors and opinions expressed in these project materials are our own.