Lifecourse Modelling for Childhood Policy Analysis

Core research team:  Ieva Skarda, Miqdad Asaria, Richard Cookson (PI)

Work in progress project materials:

Related work by Paul Frijters and colleagues at the LSE:

Abstract

Existing methods for analysing the long-term consequences of alternative childhood policy options are either limited to a few outcomes over part of the lifecourse or fail to allow for individual-level interactions between the outcomes. We overcome these limitations using stochastic transition modelling of developmental, economic, social and health outcomes from birth to death for each child in the general population. Our approach can be used for economic evaluation, wellbeing analysis, targeting analysis and distributional analysis from a lifetime perspective.  We illustrate by evaluating a training programme for parents of children at risk of conduct disorder.

Keywords:

Simulation Modelling —

Equity, Justice, Inequality, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement — Health and Inequality — Education and Inequality — General Welfare, Well-Being

Funding source

This is independent research by the University of York funded by the Wellcome Trust (Grant No. 205427/Z/16/Z) and the UK Prevention Research Partnership as part of the ActEarly Consortium. Early development work on this project from 2017 to 2018 was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (SRF-2013-06-015).

The views expressed in these project materials are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the Wellcome Trust, the UK Prevention Research Partnership, the NHS, the National Institute for Health Research or the Department of Health and Social Care.

Acknowledgements

We would first like to thank the members of our advisory group: Annalisa Belloni, Sarah Cattan, Leon Feinstein, Paul Frijters, Peter Goldblatt, Heather Joshi, Catherine Law, Lara McClure and Christine Power.

For useful comments we also are grateful to Shehzad Ali, Mark Ashworth, Karen Bloor, Laura Bojke, Eva Maria Bonin, Jonathan Bradshaw, Penny Breeze,  Alan Brennan, Eric Brunner, Tracey Bywater, Simon Capewell, Maria Guzman Castillo, Bette Chambers, Brendan Collins, Gabriella Conti, Peter Diggle, Tim Doran, Susan Griffin, Nils Gutacker, James Heckman, Bruce Hollingsworth, Andrew Jones, Noemi Kreif, Christodoulos Kypridemos, Richard Mattock, Cheti Nicoletti, Martin O’Flaherty, Kate Pickett, George Ploubidis, Gerry Richardson, Jemimah Ride, Matthew Robson, Tracey Sach, Filipa Sampaio, Trevor Sheldon, Tushar Srivastava, Mark Strong, David Taylor-Robinson, Valentina Tonei, Aki Tsuchiya, Simon Walker, Margaret Whitehead and Mark Mon Williams.

The errors and opinions expressed in this paper are our own.